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Topic with many replies

The Weather Thread!


Author Message
Written on: 21.06.2012 09:26
Saturnus
Posts: 3048
Bongo Anders wrote:

Unless I'm mistaken it looks good because the darkest colours is the one with most chance of realisation and a few mm is hardly noticeable.


No. It's the yellow line that is the median of the forecast models. The darkest blue shows the range which 50% of the forecast models predict. So if it's dark blue from 0mm to 2mm, the predicted percipitation is between that for 50% of the forecast models. The yellow line shows the average predicted percipitation for all forecast models.

Also note that each block is over a 6 hour period. 1mm of rain is abot a 5 minute shower or a 1 hour light drizzle. Remember, 1mm of rain means that 1 liter of water is spread over 1 square meter. Not a lot.

[This article was edited 1 times, at last 21.06.2012 at 09:32.]
Written on: 21.06.2012 10:07
jazon
Posts: 55
http://www.accuweather.com/en/dk/roskilde/125902/july-weather/125902?monyr=7%2F1%2F2012&view=table

looks good here
Written on: 21.06.2012 13:11
Kasper
Posts: 1
Well.. One thing I've learned, not only from all of my Roskilde experiences, is that the Danish weather (especially the summer) is SO unpredictable- weather-wise.

The forecasts are so unreliable. They are not accuarate now, and they will not be accurate if you check them during the festival.

Latest example: Copenhell. The forecast on Danish TV2 said no rain but cloudy. I remember a quite wet concert with Marilyn Manson.
Written on: 21.06.2012 19:39
Bongo Anders
Posts: 1155

Accuweather is going mad, now its sunny and up to 27 C, but don´t get your hopes up. icon_razz.gif



http://www.accuweather.com/en/dk/roskilde/125902/july-weather/125902?monyr=7/1/2012
Written on: 21.06.2012 19:54
Saturnus
Posts: 3048
For Denmark, Accuweather is as reliant as the car of the same name.
Written on: 21.06.2012 20:07
Lord Beef Jerky
Posts: 1507
Please stop using accuweather... they've never been right about the weather at Roskilde.
Written on: 21.06.2012 20:54
Bongo Anders
Posts: 1155
That is also why i put a smiley at the end, i believe they predicted sunshine on the now famous Thursday in 2007 when Roskilde Festival changed name to Noah´s Festival. banghead.gif

[This article was edited 2 times, at last 21.06.2012 at 21:38.]
Written on: 21.06.2012 21:23
Saturnus
Posts: 3048
Bongo Anders wrote:

That is also wy i put a smiley at the end, i believe they predicted sunshine on the now famous Thursday in 2012 when Roskilde Festival changed name to Noah´s Festival. banghead.gif


2007, but yes they did.
Written on: 21.06.2012 21:37
Bongo Anders
Posts: 1155
Sure it was, silly me.
Written on: 22.06.2012 13:37
Rockmus
Posts: 290
Saturnus wrote:

Bongo Anders wrote:

Unless I'm mistaken it looks good because the darkest colours is the one with most chance of realisation and a few mm is hardly noticeable.


No. It's the yellow line that is the median of the forecast models. The darkest blue shows the range which 50% of the forecast models predict. So if it's dark blue from 0mm to 2mm, the predicted percipitation is between that for 50% of the forecast models. The yellow line shows the average predicted percipitation for all forecast models.

Also note that each block is over a 6 hour period. 1mm of rain is abot a 5 minute shower or a 1 hour light drizzle. Remember, 1mm of rain means that 1 liter of water is spread over 1 square meter. Not a lot.


If the median is that yellow line it looks very fine icon_smile.gif
Written on: 22.06.2012 15:07
Anders Post
Posts: 152
This looks perfect... When it comes to weather preferences I stick to one single fact: Its much easier to warm up your body, then cool it down.

I will be looking forward to: Getting sleep after 8 in the morning, not overheating at concerts, less dust, more fresh cool air, good weather for cool beers and snaps to keep warm on.. Love it!

On another note; Could use one day of sunshine in CPH before the festival, cant bleeding well get my tents pre-festival tested in this damn rain..!
Written on: 24.06.2012 00:41
sebastian
Posts: 1
I'm now very much worried when it comes to this years weather!! icon_frown.gif
Have anyone got any experiences with DMI's forecasts, like 1 week before?
http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/byvejr_danmark.htm?by=4000
Written on: 24.06.2012 01:29
Saturnus
Posts: 3048
Why are you worried? Looks like perfect Roskilde weather to me?

DMI is the most accurate weather forecast. It estimate that for the Roskilde there's about 80% chance of being as predicted now.
Written on: 24.06.2012 10:12
The Rehabilitation of Luis Suarez
Posts: 2506
I am not really sure what the DMI shows. How much rain in average a day? Temperatures around 20?
Written on: 24.06.2012 10:33
Saturnus
Posts: 3048
Top Secret Identity wrote:

I am not really sure what the DMI shows. How much rain in average a day? Temperatures around 20?


It's defined as sunny with occasional showers. Showers are by nature very localized so it could easy rain on one end of the festival and not on the other. What is predicted is roughly between 0mm and 2-3mm in an average day. Temperatures up to 20 degrees but averages around 17-18 degrees. The bottom numbers aren't mm of rain as some people think. It's m/s of wind, so light wind (probably from western directions).
Written on: 24.06.2012 10:33
Andreas Ledet
Posts: 5
Judging by the yellow line(average expected amount of rain) on DMI's forecast, there will be a few millimeters throughout the whole week at most. Cloudy, but pretty dry and just below 20 degrees celcius.

The TV2 forecast looks very good.

http://i84.photobucket.com/albums/k19/Detorx/ScreenShot2012-06-24at103045.png

Written on: 24.06.2012 11:24
The Rehabilitation of Luis Suarez
Posts: 2506
Saturnus wrote:

Top Secret Identity wrote:

I am not really sure what the DMI shows. How much rain in average a day? Temperatures around 20?


It's defined as sunny with occasional showers. Showers are by nature very localized so it could easy rain on one end of the festival and not on the other. What is predicted is roughly between 0mm and 2-3mm in an average day. Temperatures up to 20 degrees but averages around 17-18 degrees. The bottom numbers aren't mm of rain as some people think. It's m/s of wind, so light wind (probably from western directions).


Cheers, that sounds like the second best weather to me (would have preferred a bit more sun, but anything besides pissing down and not too cold is alright with me)

[This article was edited 1 times, at last 24.06.2012 at 11:24.]
Written on: 24.06.2012 19:57
Bajjorn
Posts: 81
Push that rain away from friday night! icon_mad.gif

http://i49.tinypic.com/302b57o.png
Written on: 24.06.2012 20:01
Saturnus
Posts: 3048
Bajjorn wrote:

Push that rain away from friday night! icon_mad.gif



icon_biggrin.gif

So happy I'm not queuing through the night. 12mm is quite a lot actually. Pretty windy Friday too.

[This article was edited 1 times, at last 24.06.2012 at 20:02.]
Written on: 24.06.2012 22:13
Bongo Anders
Posts: 1155
I though that the new queuing system didn't made it necessary for people to staying overnight in the line and that they just arrived at saturday.
Written on: 24.06.2012 22:22
Saturnus
Posts: 3048
Bongo Anders wrote:

I though that the new queuing system didn't made it necessary for people to staying overnight in the line and that they just arrived at saturday.


You'd think so but no. There's still tons of people queuing up Friday to get THE spot for their camp.
Written on: 25.06.2012 01:27
Bongo Anders
Posts: 1155
Its amaze me for some reason because I'm guessing that the idea of the system is that everyone in each waiting area has a fair change to get in.

But back to topic.
Written on: 25.06.2012 08:57
MadsNedergaard
Posts: 52
http://servlet.dmi.dk/byvejr/servlet/byvejr?by=4000&tabel=dag3_9

Queuing won't be the problem anymore - monday will! banghead.gif
Written on: 25.06.2012 09:45
Bongo Anders
Posts: 1155
Nice I'm first arriving Tuesday or Wednesday so it will probably reduce the dust alot until I have arrived.
Written on: 25.06.2012 09:48
Lord Beef Jerky
Posts: 1507
The weather is so unstable right now, that it seems useless to follow weather forecasts predicting just a few days from now. We will get some rain, it may not amount to much, but it may be a lot... that's all we know. Let's hope for the best.


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